Inflection Point: I’ll Have What They’re Having

Photo of phone book pagePolitical polling has gotten much harder in recent years.  More Americans don’t pick up their landline phone (if they still have one), access to cell phones is not possible or at least challenging, and trust and response rates are lower.  So, it is increasingly hard for polling firms to get accurate, random snapshots of the electorate and the “likely voters.”  And, while Internet polls are getting better, representativeness and validity are still major problems.

So, it is interesting to see that it can sometimes be equally, or more, accurate to ask citizens not only who they plan to vote for, but who they think will actually win an election.  This may have some accuracy as people talk to their friends and networks and get a sense of what others expect or who they plan to vote for.

The New York Times ran an interesting piece on this after the 2012 election, based on an academic paper by Rothschild and Wolfers.

For what it’s worth, right now, based upon the most recent Washington Post/ABC News survey, question 15 below, the most voters think Hillary Clinton will win.

who will win in Nov? question


Categories: Commentary

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